Spider-Man: Brand New Day could score the second-biggest opening ever hitting $72 million in previews
Spider-Man: Brand New Day pulled a franchise-record $72 million in Thursday previews and is tracking for a domestic opening between $195 and $300 million. Global debut estimates run past $425 million, with some analysts eyeing a $1 billion full run.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day just swung out of the gate with a record, and the movie hasn’t even had its first full day yet.
Tom Holland‘s fourth solo outing as Spider-Man pulled in about $72 million from Thursday preview screenings, a new high for the Spider-Man franchise. Previews are the late-night and early-Thursday showings before a movie’s official Friday opening, and $72 million is a monster number for them.
Quick honest note up front: the film opens wide today, July 31, so everything past that preview figure is still a projection. But the projections are enormous, and the previews just gave them a lot of credibility.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day opening weekend domestic estimates
Here’s where the tracking lands, and the range is wide.
Sony itself has stayed conservative, projecting a domestic opening around $195 million from 4,300 theaters. Even that low-end number would be the biggest opening of 2026, topping Toy Story 5‘s $159.6 million.
Independent trackers think Sony is lowballing. Their estimates climb to $250 million, $280 million, and in the most bullish cases past $300 million. If the film lands near the top of that range, it becomes the second-biggest domestic opening in history, behind only Avengers: Endgame‘s $357 million and ahead of No Way Home‘s $260 million.
For context, only nine movies have ever opened above $200 million, and just one, Endgame, has ever cleared $300 million. So the bullish estimates are putting Spider-Man in genuinely rare company.
Spider-Man: Brand New Day global opening weekend estimates
The worldwide number is just as big, and it comes with an asterisk worth knowing.
Sony’s conservative global debut estimate is around $425 to $465 million, with roughly $270 million of that coming from international markets on top of the domestic haul. The more bullish forecasts push the global opening past $800 million.
The asterisk is China. The country didn’t play No Way Home at all, and Brand New Day is expected to add around $45 million from China in its debut. Holland and Zendaya traveled to Shanghai to promote it, so Sony is clearly hoping that market shows up.
By comparison, No Way Home opened to $587 million globally back in 2021. Brand New Day is tracking to land in the same neighborhood, maybe a touch behind, maybe ahead if the bullish numbers hit.
Could Spider-Man: Brand New Day make $1 billion
Now the full-run question, which is the fun one to guess at.
Several analysts think Brand New Day has a real shot at $1-2 billion worldwide over its full theatrical run. That’s not a stretch for this franchise. Every recent Holland Spider-Man movie has been a monster.
Here’s the track record:
Spider-Man: Homecoming (2017) opened to $117 million domestic and finished at $880 million worldwide
Spider-Man: Far From Home (2019) opened to $92 million and powered to $1.13 billion worldwide
Spider-Man: No Way Home (2021) opened to $260 million and ended near $1.9 billion worldwide, and it never even played in China
So the series has been climbing with each entry, and two of the last three crossed a billion dollars. With a bigger opening than Far From Home and a China release No Way Home never had, a billion-dollar run for Brand New Day looks less like a hope and more like the baseline expectation.
Whether it can chase No Way Home‘s nearly $2 billion is the real question, and the reviews suggest it has a chance. The film is sitting at a 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, “Certified Fresh,” which means good word of mouth could give it long legs past opening weekend.
Why Spider-Man keeps beating superhero fatigue
There’s a bigger story under these numbers, and it’s the one Marvel keeps running into.
Superhero fatigue has been the box office talking point all summer, and plenty of recent Marvel movies have underperformed. Spider-Man, somehow, is the exception. The character keeps getting more popular while the genre around him cools off.
One reason the anticipation was obvious early: the first trailer pulled a record 718.6 million views in 24 hours, nearly double the Deadpool & Wolverine record and enough to top Grand Theft Auto VI as the biggest 24-hour video launch anywhere. The audience was clearly still there.
One thing worth clearing up, since it gets confused a lot. Spider-Man movies are made by Sony, not Disney, even though the character appears in Disney’s Marvel Cinematic Universe. So a huge Brand New Day is a win for Sony first. It’s a good sign for the health of the superhero genre broadly, which helps Disney’s Marvel too, but the box office receipts here go in Sony’s pocket.
The movie’s in theaters now. The previews already broke a record. Come Monday, we’ll find out whether Peter Parker just posted one of the biggest openings anybody’s ever had. Bet on the spider.
Article compiled with the help of the Pirates & Princesses newsroom.
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Hat Tips:
Variety (July 31, 2026), the $72 million preview record, the $260-280 million opening projection, and the international estimates
Deadline (July 29, 2026), the NRG $195 million domestic tracking, the $425 million global figure, the $80 million presales, and the China projection
The Hollywood Reporter (July 30, 2026), Sony’s $195 million domestic and $465 million global studio projection and the theater count
Collider (July 29, 2026), the $1 billion full-run projection, the franchise gross comparisons, and the Rotten Tomatoes score
GoldDerby and Boxoffice Pro (July 30, 2026), the independent $250-300 million estimates and the all-time opening-weekend context