Toy Story 5 is so big it’s about to beat Supergirl on its second weekend
Pixar’s juggernaut had the biggest opening of the year, and even after the normal second-week drop, it’s set to nearly double a brand-new superhero movie’s debut. Here’s how huge the run actually is.
Toy Story 5 isn’t just winning the box office. It’s winning so decisively that a movie that’s been out for a week is about to beat a brand-new superhero blockbuster.
This weekend, Supergirl opens in theaters. And the projections say Toy Story 5, on its second weekend, will still finish on top. That tells you everything about how big Woody and the gang are right now.
The opening was historic
Let’s start with the number that kicked it off.
Toy Story 5 opened to $159.6 million domestically, the biggest debut of 2026. That’s a franchise record, beating Toy Story 4’s $120 million from 2019. It’s also the second-biggest animated opening ever, trailing only 2018’s Incredibles 2.
By Tuesday, the movie had already pulled $200.6 million at home and $351.1 million worldwide. For a series that started 30 years ago, that’s a remarkable show of staying power. People still love these toys.
The expected second-weekend drop
Here’s where it gets interesting, because even a “drop” for this movie is enormous.
Big openings almost always come with a big second-weekend fall. The question is how steep. For Toy Story 5, the experts expect a gentle one. Deadline projects a drop of just 40 to 45 percent, landing the second weekend somewhere around $88 to $96 million.
That’s a soft, healthy decline, and it’s a great sign. For comparison, Toy Story 4 dropped about 51 percent in its second weekend. A smaller drop means strong word of mouth, people are telling their friends to go, which is exactly what you want.
It’s also the opposite of what just happened to The Mandalorian and Grogu, which opened to $98 million in May and then cratered 75 percent the next weekend. Toy Story 5 is holding, not crashing.
Why beating Supergirl is such a flex
Now the head-to-head, and it’s lopsided.
Supergirl, a brand-new DC superhero movie, is projected to open this weekend to around $47 to $50 million. That’s its opening. Toy Story 5’s second weekend is tracking for $88 to $96 million.
Do the math and a four-week-in-the-making Pixar sequel, on its second lap, is set to nearly double a fresh superhero tentpole’s debut. Supergirl will most likely open in second place, behind a movie that’s already been in theaters a week. That just doesn’t happen often, and it’s a measure of how dominant Toy Story 5 is.
Where the run goes from here
The road ahead has some bumps, and they’re worth knowing.
Toy Story 5 has its own challenges coming. The Despicable Me spinoff Minions & Monsters opens July 1, and the live-action Moana follows July 10. That’s heavy family-movie competition, and it’ll eventually slow Woody and Buzz down.
There’s also a tiny crack worth noting: at 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, Toy Story 5 is a hit with critics, but that’s actually a small dip for a franchise used to near-perfect scores. It’s a minor thing, and audiences clearly love it, but it’s the first slight wobble for a brand that’s been bulletproof for 30 years.
Still, the big picture is sunny for Pixar. Movies that open this big almost always finish huge. Of the films that have opened above $150 million, nearly all have gone on to cross $400 million. Toy Story 5 looks well on its way to joining them, and maybe to becoming the franchise’s top earner.
So this weekend belongs to the toys, again. A superhero movie is opening, and it’s still going to lose to a cartoon on its second weekend.
Thirty years after Woody first reminded us there’s a snake in his boot, Toy Story is still the biggest game in town. Some toys just never go out of style.
Pirates and Princesses is your destination for Disney news, theme park updates, and the pop culture you love. From Disney cruises and travel tips to Disney fashion, food, collectibles, and movie news, PNP covers it all. Visit us at piratesandprincesses.net for daily coverage. Follow PNP on Facebook and Instagram, and listen to the Pirates & Princesses podcast on Apple Podcasts and YouTube.
Hat Tips:
Variety (June 2026), verified for Toy Story 5’s $159.6 million opening, the franchise and animated-opening records, and the Supergirl $47-50 million opening projection
Deadline, via Yahoo (June 2026), verified for the $88-96 million second-weekend projection, the 40-45% drop estimate, the $200.6 million domestic and $351.1 million worldwide totals, and the $170 million Supergirl budget
Box Office Pro (June 2026), verified for the Toy Story 4 second-weekend comparison, the Minions & Monsters and Moana competition, and the 92% Rotten Tomatoes note
ComicBook.com and Rotten Tomatoes (June 2026), verified for the Mandalorian and Grogu second-weekend crash comparison and the “$150M openers cross $400M” stat